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A good portion of my decision to back a team in a baseball game has to do with the starting pitching matchup.  It doesn’t have that much to do with the overall strength of the pitchers over the long run, but rather the recent performance of each pitcher in a game.  I also consider the recent offensive production of the two teams and any winning/losing streaks the two teams are on at any given time.

What do all of these factors have in common?  They are all about streaks!  It may sound overly simplistic, but it’s a lot like one of Isaac Newton’s theories of motion.  Remember it from high school? It goes something like this: “an object that is in motion tends to stay in motion”.  It might seem silly to read this, but it seems like Mr. Newton’s theory applies to baseball as well.

Consider the Boston Red Sox/Chicago White Sox game on Sunday, August 26, 2007.  The Red Sox had taken the first three games of the series in impressive fashion, scoring over 30 runs in the previous three games.  Chicago entered the game on a four game losing streak.  Luckily for the White Sox, they had a favorable pitching matchup.  Julian Tavarez was due to take the hill for the Red Sox and the White Sox were countering with a solid starting pitcher with very good and consistent recent starts, Javier Vazquez.  There was nothing particularly exciting about Tavarez’s performance this year.  He entered the game with an ERA hovering above 5.00 and he was coming up against a pitcher that had not given up more than four runs in any of his last 12 starts.  During that span, Vazquez was 8-1.  Despite a slow start, Javier Vazquez had really turned his season around.  Best of all, if you took Javier Vazquez you only had to lay 105 to win 100.  What a steal for a good pitcher going against a stiff like Tavarez, right? WRONG!

We backed the Red Sox and Tavarez in this matchup, primarily due to the fact that we were getting a red hot hitting team on a hell of a winning streak against a team in a tailspin.  It paid off very nicely too, as the game was never in doubt in the late innings.  Give me a scenario like that one and I will bet it 9 times out of 10.  Don’t just jump on the opportunity to take a superior pitcher at a rock-bottom price.  So much more of the game is recent performance.  Neglecting hitting, pitching, and winning streaks is the equivalent of leaving a bike unattended in the ghetto.  Do something stupid like that and you deserve to lose your money.

Let’s say there’s a favorite you love in the National League, but you just don’t feel like tying up the money to lay $180 to win $100.  The team you like is a home team and they should easily get the job done.  You get ready to make your wager and you realize that you can get even money if you take your team -1.5 runs.  Easy decision, right? To borrow a phrase from the ESPN college football analyst Lee Corso, “not so fast, my friend”!

There are certain times when you should take special caution when considering a run line play.  Most, if not all, of these factors are included in the line and that is why it often looks like too good of a deal to pass up.  You should exercise extra caution if any of the following conditions apply:

1) The team you like is a National League team.  Because pitchers bat in the NL, games are generally lower scoring.  Because of this fact, you will find that many more games are one run contests.  Sure, the good teams still win most of them, but the margin of victory is usually much smaller.

2) The team you like is playing at home.  As you know, home teams do not get a chance to increase their margin of victory by batting in the ninth inning of a game they have already won.  Furthermore, once a game goes into extra innings, the ONLY chance you have to cover the run and a half is to have your team hit a walk-off homer with at least one runner on base.  As a home team, your chances of covering the run line are greatly reduced.

3) The team you like has been sluggish lately offensively.  Even though your pitcher may be tough enough to get his team over the hump, teams that are not hitting usually don’t break out of it in a big way.  Oftentimes it will be a one run victory that gets them back on the right track.

While the factors listed above should make you take extra caution, it doesn’t mean that taking the run line in such games is a bad idea; just think it through before placing your wager.  On the other hand, the presence of the opposite factors: American League games, road teams, and hot-hitting offenses are reasons to consider laying the run and a half.  The challenge is to you, the sports handicapping guru, to determine when and when not to use this tool.

One final caveat I must add is this: many books offer a dime line on baseball money line wagers; however, most of these same books use 20 cent lines for run line wagering.  You must consider the extra juice as well when playing these types of bets.

During the height of the poker craze I read a book by Alan N. Schoonmaker titled “The Psychology of Poker”.  I read so many poker books during that period that I probably can’t define specifically what each one contributed to my poker education; however, when preparing this article the title of Mr. Schoonmaker’s book popped into my head, probably because today I am going to dive into “the psychology of baseball”.

Those of you who watch and/or bet on baseball will probably agree with me when I say the outcomes of baseball games rely heavily on the psychology of the players in the games.  Calling the right pitch to fool a hitter, anticipating the pitch coming from the pitcher, and the psychological effects of the stadium atmosphere all contribute to successes and failures on the field.  Because we can not really “get into the head” of the actual players, we are left with a pile of data, in the form of statistics, to determine the probable results of the games.  Bookmakers take that data to formulate odds, and, as players we try to determine which side, if any, has value for the bettor.

When compiling my selections for a given day, I try to isolate certain factors.  Among those factors is a phenomenon I call “A Tale of Two Stadiums”.  The concept is simple; some starting pitchers have issues dealing with certain situations.  They melt down under pressure in certain parks, or they have issues when they pitch either at home or on the road.  A prime example of this factor would be Steve Trachsel in the mid-1990s.  As a young pitcher with the Chicago Cubs, Trachsel couldn’t pitch worth a lick at Wrigley Field.  In the 1994 and 1995 seasons, Trachsel was 3-15 at home with a 4.85 ERA.  When the Cubbies went on the road it was a different story for Trachsel, as he went 13-5 with a 3.60 ERA.  The home/road splits were even more pronounced when you look at the 1994 season, as he was 1-7 at home and a perfect 8-0 on the road.

There are several young pitchers to which this theory of “A Tale of Two Stadiums” apply.  Look at Wandy Rodriguez’s pitching splits for the year.  Rodriguez loves to pitch at home, posting a 6-2 record and a 1.65 ERA.  Opposing hitters are only hitting .200 against him and he is barely walking two guys every nine innings pitched.  On the road it is a different story; Rodriguez is a mess.  He has posted a 1-9 record on the road this season and his ERA is an unbelievable 7.80!  Opposing hitters are running up to the plate; they are batting .309 against Rodriguez when the Astros are on the road! Similarly, Ervin Santana is a mess on the road, posting a 1-9 record and an 8.06 ERA on the road, while going 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA in home starts.  Santana has been battered in his 12 road starts for the Angels; opposing hitters have crushed 17 homers and are batting .327 against him!

Although these two recent examples show pitchers that have trouble on the road, there are two good examples of this phenomenon that deal with pitchers having trouble in their home parks.  In three home starts to date, Yankees rookie starting pitcher Phil Hughes has failed to make it past the 5th inning, going 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA.  It has been a different story for Hughes on the road, as he has been phenomenal in his two starts, going 2-0 with an 0.76 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP.  Dustin Moseley, a rookie starting pitcher for the Angels, has posted a 6.00 ERA in his 15 appearances at home, while posting a 3.82 ERA on the road.  Today’s schedule presents an interesting scenario; Hughes, who has been stellar on the road is facing off with Moseley, who has been disappointing at home.  If Moseley wasn’t getting so much run support in his outings, the Yankees would have definitely been one of our plays for today; however, we have decided not to include them as one of our paid picks.  There is sufficient evidence to include them as a free pick, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.  Our free pick for today is on the New York Yankees (Hughes) -140 over the LA Angels (Moseley).  Good luck!